...heute hat der Aziz Habibi, viele dürfen ihn denke ich kennen, über Facebook geschrieben, das das TKW wohl unter 9kg liegen soll und schon fast alles in Marokko verkauft wurde...
...das es wohl eine Person(ein bekannter Händler) gibt, die mehrere Kilos aufgekauft hat (hatte glaube ich der Ingo schon angedeutet), aber diese Person davon nix dem freien Markt zuführen wird...
Wie dem auch sei, und egal, wie man den Wahrheitsgehalt solcher
Aussagen einschätzt: ein einigermassen verläßlicher Preis wird sich
wohl erst in Tucson etablieren. Bis dahin scharren die Hufe...
Folgenden Beitrag des erfahrenen Sammlerkollegen Doug Dawn, der
heute früh über die US-Liste reinkam, fand ich interessant zu lesen
in diesem Zusammenhang, deshalb kopiere ich ihn hier mal hin:
"The quality of the meteorites has less impact on the value than the
supply and demand situation. NWA 482 is expensive because it was
doled it out, like Haag with Esquel and any others of a number of highly
profitable monopolized falls. This one is clearly not price controllable,
it is well-distributed whether desireable or not. Theinitial sales were
already made at very low price and those are the guys that are sitting
on top of the profit, but that is long gone.
The posts are divided into two groups: the haves and the have-nots.
The haves want to drive up the price to lock in a profit (and if they
bought in at an in-between price, have got to be sweating bullets with
the increase in material mentioned), so every time they open their
mouthes it will be as a strategy to claw up the price in a clueless
market so far. The name of the game for our high octane meteorite
gambling contingent is to buy lower than the other guy, that's all
there is to be done.
And the have nots, some are pissed they missed out and either have
sour grapes, or others who couldn't give a hoot, or ar just happy they
don't have to deal with all this gambling crap this time around. And
their posts will tend to reflect that.
If no one buys more now, in a few weeks the price will crash whether
you are a have or a have not. Doesn't matter what the material is
unless it has a customer base. The people that will set the price are
not the ones that have bought, and not the ones that will wait till the
party is over. They are the ones right now that will pony up hundreds
of thousands of dollars to tide the sources appetites over so they hold
out until the Sun rises and everyone has to go back to work. If that
money doesn't show up soon ...
As for science, science doesn't eat meteorites. With 20 grams most
everything could be figured out except variations among sampling
points. Either way, just because the scientists are salivating like us
doesn't mean all that much more science will be done, and certainly
nothing that 100 grams couldn't handle. I mean - what are the
hypotheses you expect this rock will answer? Not saying there isn't
interesting research to be done, but it's not for every Tom Dick and
Nancy with a lab coat to do. Two top groups will handily characterize
it, and they probably have enough material on the way already.
Next time you think a fresh meteorite will demand lots of money just
look at Allende. The best meteorite of all (and more interesting than
another Shergottite) and for years priced below lots of rap including
common H's and L's.
If there are 10 kilograms, at "only" $100/g, that's $1,000,000.00.
Then, if it gets retailed at $300/g that's $3,000,000 of
capitalization. Are you one of the 10 people ready to plow $100,000
into this? Or do you think that the sale of a micro or oooh, a one
gram specimen for a zillion dollars a gram means anything at all except
marketing posture (Hey look ten kg is worth a zillion becasue I sold
ten milligrams for X)? Because markets have this way of getting out of
control very quickly, and if the monopoly wasn't already established,
the cat can never be shoe-horned back into the bag. Just go buy some
Chergach, Bassi or Dreyga if you don't want to deal with this one.
Probably a better investment anyway. Too much speculation going on
with the Martian at the moment to be anything other than a gamble.
Nothing will be clear on this until the end of Tucson."
Alex
